{
  "model_version": "assembly-1405-driver-model/v2",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-01T00:00:00Z",
  "horizon": {
    "start": "1405",
    "end": "1409"
  },
  "decision_readiness": "screen_grade_internal_review_only",
  "claim_label": "سناریویی",
  "probabilities_assigned": false,
  "monte_carlo_enabled": false,
  "monte_carlo_reason": "Only five annual observations and no approved distributions or correlation matrix are available.",
  "balance_sheet_forecast_enabled": false,
  "balance_sheet_reason": "Working-capital, capex, debt, distribution and capital plans are not available; no plug-based balance-sheet forecast is published.",
  "ending_cash_forecast_enabled": false,
  "ending_cash_reason": "Investing, financing and distribution plans are unavailable; only operating cash flow is modelled.",
  "nominal_values_warning": "All historical and scenario amounts are nominal IRR. No deflator is applied and historical CAGR is not real growth.",
  "assumption_set_sha256": "fd08239313d8d64b233499530d6ac2fb1f95c5a68faa0e4c6bb6c9444e6d4a32",
  "assumptions": [
    {
      "id": "base",
      "label_fa": "پایه",
      "color": "#1463A5",
      "narrative": "رشد تعدیل‌شونده با حفظ تقریبی کیفیت حاشیه و تبدیل نقد محافظه‌کارانه.",
      "growth": [
        0.3,
        0.27,
        0.24,
        0.21,
        0.18
      ],
      "gross_margin": [
        0.38,
        0.3825,
        0.385,
        0.3875,
        0.39
      ],
      "opex_margin": [
        0.32,
        0.31875,
        0.3175,
        0.31625,
        0.315
      ],
      "below_operating_burden": [
        0.03,
        0.03,
        0.03,
        0.03,
        0.03
      ],
      "cfo_margin": [
        0.14,
        0.1425,
        0.145,
        0.1475,
        0.15
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "controlled_scale",
      "label_fa": "رشد کنترل‌شده",
      "color": "#007F79",
      "narrative": "پذیرش سریع‌تر همراه با گیت ظرفیت، قیمت و وصول؛ رشد به‌تدریج عادی می‌شود.",
      "growth": [
        0.42,
        0.36,
        0.31,
        0.27,
        0.24
      ],
      "gross_margin": [
        0.4,
        0.405,
        0.41,
        0.415,
        0.42
      ],
      "opex_margin": [
        0.315,
        0.31125,
        0.3075,
        0.30375,
        0.3
      ],
      "below_operating_burden": [
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025
      ],
      "cfo_margin": [
        0.18,
        0.185,
        0.19,
        0.195,
        0.2
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "margin_pressure",
      "label_fa": "فشار حاشیه",
      "color": "#D99A2B",
      "narrative": "رشد کمتر از کف تاریخی همراه با فشار قیمت/هزینه و بهبود آهستهٔ کنترل‌ها.",
      "growth": [
        0.12,
        0.11,
        0.1,
        0.09,
        0.08
      ],
      "gross_margin": [
        0.34,
        0.3425,
        0.345,
        0.3475,
        0.35
      ],
      "opex_margin": [
        0.315,
        0.3125,
        0.31,
        0.3075,
        0.305
      ],
      "below_operating_burden": [
        0.035,
        0.03375,
        0.0325,
        0.03125,
        0.03
      ],
      "cfo_margin": [
        0.08,
        0.085,
        0.09,
        0.095,
        0.1
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    },
    {
      "id": "stress",
      "label_fa": "تنش / شوک",
      "color": "#B73A3A",
      "narrative": "افت اولیهٔ درآمد، فشار حاشیه و نقد عملیاتی منفی، سپس بازیابی مرحله‌ای.",
      "growth": [
        -0.2,
        -0.1,
        0.0,
        0.08,
        0.15
      ],
      "gross_margin": [
        0.27,
        0.285,
        0.305,
        0.325,
        0.35
      ],
      "opex_margin": [
        0.34,
        0.33375,
        0.3275,
        0.32125,
        0.315
      ],
      "below_operating_burden": [
        0.05,
        0.04625,
        0.0425,
        0.03875,
        0.035
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      "cfo_margin": [
        -0.08,
        -0.04,
        0.0,
        0.04,
        0.08
      ]
    }
  ],
  "outputs": [
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      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۵",
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      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 778.492624,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 655.572736,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": 122.919888,
      "below_operating_burden_billion_irr": 61.459944,
      "net_profit_billion_irr": 61.459944,
      "operating_cash_flow_billion_irr": 286.813072,
      "claim_label": "سناریویی"
    },
    {
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      "revenue_billion_irr": 2601.804296,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 995.190143,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 829.325119,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": 165.865024,
      "below_operating_burden_billion_irr": 78.054129,
      "net_profit_billion_irr": 87.810895,
      "operating_cash_flow_billion_irr": 370.757112,
      "claim_label": "سناریویی"
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    {
      "scenario_id": "base",
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      "year": "1407",
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      "revenue_growth": 0.24,
      "gross_margin": 0.385,
      "opex_margin": 0.3175,
      "below_operating_burden": 0.03,
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      "revenue_billion_irr": 3226.237327,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 1242.101371,
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      "operating_profit_billion_irr": 217.77102,
      "below_operating_burden_billion_irr": 96.78712,
      "net_profit_billion_irr": 120.9839,
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      "claim_label": "سناریویی"
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "base",
      "scenario_label_fa": "پایه",
      "year": "1408",
      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۸",
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      "below_operating_burden": 0.03,
      "net_margin": 0.04125,
      "cfo_margin": 0.1475,
      "revenue_billion_irr": 3903.747166,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 1512.702027,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 1234.560041,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": 278.141986,
      "below_operating_burden_billion_irr": 117.112415,
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      "operating_cash_flow_billion_irr": 575.802707,
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    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "base",
      "scenario_label_fa": "پایه",
      "year": "1409",
      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۹",
      "revenue_growth": 0.18,
      "gross_margin": 0.39,
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      "net_margin": 0.045,
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      "revenue_billion_irr": 4606.421656,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 1796.504446,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 1451.022821,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": 345.481624,
      "below_operating_burden_billion_irr": 138.19265,
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      "operating_cash_flow_billion_irr": 690.963248,
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    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "controlled_scale",
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      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 895.108928,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 704.898281,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": 190.210647,
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      "net_profit_billion_irr": 134.266339,
      "operating_cash_flow_billion_irr": 402.799018,
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    {
      "scenario_id": "controlled_scale",
      "scenario_label_fa": "رشد کنترل‌شده",
      "year": "1406",
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      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 1232.564994,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 947.249023,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": 285.315971,
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      "operating_cash_flow_billion_irr": 563.023516,
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    },
    {
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      "scenario_label_fa": "رشد کنترل‌شده",
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    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "controlled_scale",
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      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۸",
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      "revenue_billion_irr": 5063.25526,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 2101.250933,
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      "scenario_id": "controlled_scale",
      "scenario_label_fa": "رشد کنترل‌شده",
      "year": "1409",
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      "scenario_id": "margin_pressure",
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      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 600.101197,
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      "operating_cash_flow_billion_irr": 141.200282,
      "claim_label": "سناریویی"
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "margin_pressure",
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      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۶",
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      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 671.010213,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 612.235596,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": 58.774617,
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      "operating_cash_flow_billion_irr": 166.528082,
      "claim_label": "سناریویی"
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "margin_pressure",
      "scenario_label_fa": "فشار حاشیه",
      "year": "1407",
      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۷",
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      "net_margin": 0.0025,
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      "revenue_billion_irr": 2155.069298,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 743.498908,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 668.071482,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": 75.427425,
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      "operating_cash_flow_billion_irr": 193.956237,
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    {
      "scenario_id": "margin_pressure",
      "scenario_label_fa": "فشار حاشیه",
      "year": "1408",
      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۸",
      "revenue_growth": 0.09,
      "gross_margin": 0.3475,
      "opex_margin": 0.3075,
      "below_operating_burden": 0.03125,
      "net_margin": 0.00875,
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      "revenue_billion_irr": 2349.025535,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 816.286373,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 722.325352,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": 93.961021,
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      "claim_label": "سناریویی"
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    {
      "scenario_id": "margin_pressure",
      "scenario_label_fa": "فشار حاشیه",
      "year": "1409",
      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۹",
      "revenue_growth": 0.08,
      "gross_margin": 0.35,
      "opex_margin": 0.305,
      "below_operating_burden": 0.03,
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      "revenue_billion_irr": 2536.947578,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 887.931652,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 773.769011,
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      "scenario_label_fa": "تنش / شوک",
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      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۵",
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      "gross_margin": 0.27,
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      "net_margin": -0.12,
      "cfo_margin": -0.08,
      "revenue_billion_irr": 1260.7168,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 340.393536,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 428.643712,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": -88.250176,
      "below_operating_burden_billion_irr": 63.03584,
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      "year": "1406",
      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۶",
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      "opex_margin": 0.33375,
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      "net_margin": -0.095,
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      "revenue_billion_irr": 1134.64512,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 323.373859,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 378.687809,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": -55.31395,
      "below_operating_burden_billion_irr": 52.477337,
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      "operating_cash_flow_billion_irr": -45.385805,
      "claim_label": "سناریویی"
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      "scenario_id": "stress",
      "scenario_label_fa": "تنش / شوک",
      "year": "1407",
      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۷",
      "revenue_growth": 0.0,
      "gross_margin": 0.305,
      "opex_margin": 0.3275,
      "below_operating_burden": 0.0425,
      "net_margin": -0.065,
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      "revenue_billion_irr": 1134.64512,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 346.066762,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 371.596277,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": -25.529515,
      "below_operating_burden_billion_irr": 48.222418,
      "net_profit_billion_irr": -73.751933,
      "operating_cash_flow_billion_irr": 0.0,
      "claim_label": "سناریویی"
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "stress",
      "scenario_label_fa": "تنش / شوک",
      "year": "1408",
      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۸",
      "revenue_growth": 0.08,
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      "opex_margin": 0.32125,
      "below_operating_burden": 0.03875,
      "net_margin": -0.035,
      "cfo_margin": 0.04,
      "revenue_billion_irr": 1225.41673,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 398.260437,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 393.665124,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": 4.595313,
      "below_operating_burden_billion_irr": 47.484898,
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      "operating_cash_flow_billion_irr": 49.016669,
      "claim_label": "سناریویی"
    },
    {
      "scenario_id": "stress",
      "scenario_label_fa": "تنش / شوک",
      "year": "1409",
      "year_label": "سال ۱۴۰۹",
      "revenue_growth": 0.15,
      "gross_margin": 0.35,
      "opex_margin": 0.315,
      "below_operating_burden": 0.035,
      "net_margin": 0.0,
      "cfo_margin": 0.08,
      "revenue_billion_irr": 1409.229239,
      "gross_profit_billion_irr": 493.230234,
      "operating_expense_billion_irr": 443.90721,
      "operating_profit_billion_irr": 49.323023,
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      "claim_label": "سناریویی"
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  ],
  "scenario_summaries": [
    {
      "scenario_id": "base",
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